A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
